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Petroleum Price, Profit Outlook March 2010Post-recession petroleum prices are higher but debate over which will drive markets – emerging or developed economies – raises questions about the rally’s durability. Expectations for the U.S. refined products market remain dim as domestic processing capacity exceeds fuel demand and continues to lose ground to imports (from subsidized refineries not candidates for closure). As long as U.S. fuel inventories remain at historically high levels, last year’s price surge is not likely to be duplicated. U.S. economic recovery remains tentative, plagued by high unemployment seen lasting beyond 2010. The housing price tumble (the biggest single determinant of U.S. household cash flow) and its resolution are likely to determine the course of consumer spending. The global financial crisis has prompted a movement toward regionalism and away from global coordination. As a result, geopolitical risks should be viewed in the context of an international system in which the U.S. is withdrawing from its role as global policeman and no candidates are stepping forward to take its place. 18 pages. Read more...
Not Your Daddy's Diesel: Prospects for the Other Reformulated FuelThis report looks behind diesel's new hype and researches the prospects for its supply, demand, price, profitability, as well as its marketing possibilities this decade. The white paper also focuses on automakers' efforts to boost diesel passenger vehicle sales in the U.S. and the hurdles that must be overcome to do so. 16 pages. Read more...